Bob Rinear, June 19 2021
What’s it all mean? Are we at an inflection point in market land now, and the big bull market is over? Probably not just yet. That said, Quad hangovers can indeed extend several days, as traders reposition and rethink their futures roll outs. But make no mistake, the Fed’s statements, along with Bullard’s opinion, has changed the narrative some. We might see a much more volatile next two weeks as they try and square up all of this. Caution is warranted.
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Bob Rinear, March 16 2024
I'm sure you all saw it. The PPI Thursday came in TWICE as hot as they expected. They thought we'd see prices rise 0.3, but no, it was 0.6. Even taking out food and energy it was hotter than expected.
That coincides with the latest CPI reading that was also hotter than expected. Wrapped up together we have two months of data showing that inflation has stopped "coming down" and is perking back up.
Well, what's the grand poo-bah Powell going to say about that? This coming week is a Two day FOMC meeting with Powell doing a press conference at the end of the second day. Well, in his speech to Congress a couple weeks back, he was very dovish, and said several things that pointed to them being ready to cut rates.
Many hoped he was going to start with the March meeting next week. But how can he? We've got back to back higher readings. Which means, I think...he's going to have to say something like "this is why we've been patient and have held things higher for longer, because we didn't want to get headfaked, cut rates too early and then have to hike them again."
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